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The Study of Swiftology

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  • Ophy, amazing post!
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    • I only know private equity as it relates to restaurant chains, but they are all about numbers and data. It would be weird to for them to not review the current back catalog sales and projections going forward as a basis for the acquisition. Unless *they* put out a press release saying they spent $300M to acquire the masters, I don't believe it. It was a private transaction since neither are public entities. Those numbers came from Scooter. And he likely sold them a majority stake *or* he has a phase out over a set number of years.

      They also likely understand that the earlier records will sell like hotcakes even if (maybe especially if) she decided to release new versions. It might spike sales in a way that would never happen if she didn't. Fans that care about Taylor's emotional bottom line with Scooter already own these records. But, the rereleases will spark interest in the originals and that will bring in money for them regardless.

      It's an extremely valuable catalog, and it doesn't cost them anything extra to be nice to Taylor. Frankly, her announcement about it is kind to the PE firm and is likely to create sales. Not all your money is going to Scooter, so it's less problematic to acquire those for True Fans.
      Itís just really honestly so tiring and emotionally draining to have to get upset over reality constantly.

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      • Thank you for the round-ups, Ophy! I needed some TSwift content.

        The general consensus seems to be that Shamrock had to have been duped somehow
        I think Is is right that they would not be duped, but still believe the catalog has value even with her re-recording. I just don’t buy that a Disney corporation would not do their homework on this.

        MAYBE TAYLOR CAN DO TAYMERICA AGAIN YAAAAS. Crossing my fingers for 7/4/2021!
        This will be a sign that the land is healing.

        I loved the McCartney/Swift article. Those two people have so much in common so far as living the weirdest version of pop star life. And they both seem into being nice with each other. That whole discussion about “peace” was basically Taylor working through her anxieties about having children while Paul tells her it’s okay and she’ll do fine. If she’s not pregnant now, Paul just talked her into getting pregnant.

        During the shoot, Paul dances and takes almost none of it too seriously and sings along to Motown songs playing from the speakers. A few times Mary scolds, ‘Daaad, try to stand still!’ And it feels like a window into a pretty awesome family dynamic.
        One my hobbies is reading for times when she might be sub-tweeting Scott. Possibly I am over-reading this, but “leaving like a father” is still stuck in my head.

        where she's filmed herself chest up in baggy-ish clothes
        She may have just gained some pandemic weight? The world seems to be divided into stress eaters and stress non-eaters (I discovered I am the latter), and she’s been home with a lot of wine and baking, so it could just be that.

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        • I don't believe she is pregnant but I do believe she's thinking about it.
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          • Thank you, ophy! Is's take about the sale makes perfect sense to me so that's the story I'm rolling with from now on. If Taylor really is busy working on rerecording her older songs, I still vote for versions where she does an original and an acoustic take on them, at least for the post country era hits. Basically anything from Red and newer. And I like stuff to happen in chronological order, but it's probably a smarter idea to do some version of the singles first.

            Also, I would obviously love to see the Kaylor world go insane at a double pregnancy, but any time Taylor disappears for weeks, I'm always a little worried that it's because her mom is sick. Karlie posted a video of her belly the other day, but I haven't checked to see how the preg deniers are spinning it.

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            • Karlie posted a video of her belly the other day, but I haven't checked to see how the preg deniers are spinning it.

              I've got you kovered, no worries! Planning on doing a kay post tomorrow. It's going about as well over in kayland right now as you might expect.














              but any time Taylor disappears for weeks, I'm always a little worried that it's because her mom is sick.


              . . . that is totally my first fear as well.






              Unless *they* put out a press release saying they spent $300M to acquire the masters, I don't believe it. It was a private transaction since neither are public entities. Those numbers came from Scooter.


              This sounds likely! I'll bet they also really hoped she would stop her re-record plans though, once Koots was nominally out of the picture.




              More reactions from the masters' sale:

















              (if Koots can raise $330mil from investors, Taylor Fucking Swift can CERTAINLY raise $300 mil with her own investment team but the rest is valid.)












              Rolling Stone's take on why Shamrock did it:

              https://www.rollingstone.com/pro/fea...mrock-1091742/

              But what’s the thinking from Shamrock Capital (aka Shamrock Holdings), the quiet Los Angeles-based investment company that splurged over $300 million to acquire Swift’s masters from Braun? Swift is already pressing ahead with plans to re-record the masters that are now under Shamrock’s ownership; she also still has the power to block sync license requests for her old recordings, which she has already been doing with abandon. Many insiders have been scratching their heads over Shamrock’s motivations in the last 24 hours.

              . . .

              What was the formula behind Shamrock’s “consideration,” exactly? Perhaps this: According to stats released by the RIAA, the US recorded music industry in 2019 generated $11.1 billion in gross revenues — but only 2.5% of this figure was generated by synchronization fees (i.e. the money paid when music is used in a commercial format like an ad or TV show). Even on a wholesale basis, sync’s $276 million contribution only made up 3.8%.

              Swift can block Shamrock profiting from sync, sure — but she can’t stop the company making money from physical music sales, digital downloads, and streaming. Those, according to the RIAA, are income streams that cumulatively made up 97.5% of all US industry revenues last year.

              . . .

              Let’s say Taylor’s re-records of classic hits like “Shake It Off,” “Bad Blood,” and “I Knew You Were Trouble” go as swimmingly as they possibly can. Considering the vastness of her talent, I’m going to go ahead and suggest they’ll be of tip-top quality. Let’s also suppose she gets good support from the likes of Spotify and YouTube to promote the re-recorded albums, and that Taylor’s army of Swifties do their duty, rinsing plays of her new masters in place of her Shamrock-owned originals. Let’s also suppose Swift’s recorded music partner, Universal Music Group, throws everything and the kitchen sink at marketing her new re-records.

              That takes care of music industry headlines long into 2021. But in two, five, or ten years time, will any of this matter? When Spotify’s algorithmic tinkering reverts to normal, when UMG’s megabucks spend is through — what happens then? Won’t consumers, not to mention advertisers, ultimately want to hear the version of these songs that soundtracked their first kiss, their wedding dance, their teenage heartbreak? And how can even the most diehard Swift fans ensure they’re always streaming the new albums and not the old recordings by accident (especially when such choices are increasingly at the mercy of Alexa)?

              . . .

              If her re-records become a loss-making enterprise — and I’m not saying they will, but if they do — how long will it be before, say, green-lighting a big Coca-Cola Superbowl sync for the original version of “Shake It Off” becomes a temptation? (Swift, one has to remember, also does profit from the publishing rights on her Shamrock-owned songs.)

              What about a blockbuster Taylor Swift biopic — but one for which a movie studio needs to license the recordings made by Swift when she was 14, 17 and 20, rather than 30? As we’ve seen with the Bohemian Rhapsody movie, such projects can provide a huge career boost for the popularity of artists amongst the next generation of listeners. Swift’s doing fine on that score, obviously — this year’s Folklore is one of her most popular and acclaimed albums yet — but, years from now, will she really turn down such a lucrative opportunity out of enmity towards Braun?

              Shamrock will be hoping not.

              . . .

              Shamrock might just have lit the blue touch-paper on an acquisition frenzy that quickly escalates multiples on master rights. Eventually, that could leave the firm’s buyout of Swift’s music looking less like a blooper, and more like a bargain.



              So yada yada Shamrock is taking a long term view and don't count out the money they will make from streaming in general regardless. Assuming that the $300 mil number is just Koots blowing smoke up everyone's ass, this is probably accurate. I'd really like someone to leak the actual $ payout Koots get from this. Probs more like $80 million or so, if even that. $300 mil might be considered the value of the deal 'over time' or whatever, but it's doubtful he walked away with all of that in a suitcase or something. I'll NEVAH believe that he didn't lose money on all of this.







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              • Some quick Taytidbits before the kay main event . . .



                Sharon Osborne on the view defends Taylor and explains the way that record contracts work really well:


                https://youtu.be/V_Wc9x1UcE8




                Her mortgage analogy made a lot of sense to me!



                And in jet news, an anon claims Taylor just bought a new Dassault Falcon 2000EX, which is currently in CT about an hour or so from her RI house. (They generally cost about $8mil according to interwebz).


                That would be a much smaller jet than her older one (the one that might be dunzo) -- but really if it's mainly going to be used by the family like the older one was, it doesn't have to be very big. The one she flies around in herself is can go overseas without refueling, of course, but she doesn't need that for a new second jet.





                Falcon 2000EX sample interiors:

















                That seems plenty big enough for just jetting Andrea and her dog Kitty and co. around the US, even if Kitty does look like this:















                Another flight since I last posted!


                11/17 London - Nash




                Dunno what that actually means, but the zipping around the country Stateside seems to have slowed down. :shrug:





                And she did a video for the Apple Music Awards (she won Songwriter of the Year):





                [






                You can see how long her hair has grown:






                And it's straight? Fans are speccing she might have been filming something or doing a shoot that day also.











                Hope so! That would be really great.



                Side bits! There have been swiftgron DRAMZ ripples courtesy of Kevin McHale from Glee:












                He was basically like . . .







                He gets to be Swiftgron's 2020 Enemy #1, so congrats!










                Swiftgronners don't play, so he might want to watch his back, just sayin'.









                And oh, hey let's check in real qwick on the other bbgate in the kay fandom (no, not Mikey Hess/Misha, the other one):
















                Yep, so that's still a thing.



                oKay!

                Before we dive in, just want to apologize in advance if there are dupes or randomness appearing below. I collect pieces of kay nonsense every day or so and shove them into a doc to save for when I have time to post and boy howdy, it can get really disorganized sometimes and I often forget I've already snagged something and end up snagging it again. Also, when I have lots of stuff to embed, things get broken because people delete their tweets/posts etc.



                Hopefully, it will make some kind of sense, but the bigger the post the trickier it is.













                So!


                So yes, after much spec, Karlie posted her bump, thus konfirming the kay's worst knightmare scenarios:

















                You can also see it a bit in this pic with her actual husband in NYC this weekend:













                Guess there won't be a retraction in People after all!






                It's been a whole lot of kray this week, obvs. An anon on an anti-kay blog summed it up:
                TTBs blog is wild tonight! First we had: There is no baby. I repeat: NO BABY! Then it was: Well, maybe there’s a baby and it’s an IVF baby. And of course the natural progression: Austin’s sperm! KAYLOR BABY! This is my first baby-gate- what a thriller.




                But first! To set the scene, this is the level of discourse on the kween's blog and the interwebz BEFORE Karlie's konfirmation of Baby Kush:
















                Very konvient new 'source' you've got there, kween:










                Anonymous asked:

                If you have tea, can you please just share it w us? I am usually pretty patient and understanding, but we’re dealing with a supposed BABY now. Saying there’s tea to make you confident Kaylor like isn’t enough.

                ttb: Anon, there is nothing I have that I can share. And, even the details they gave me are not necessary to the point … she was convinced Kaylor are very much together. It is up to you if you believe that I am sharing an honest tip with you.

                We will not learn anything this weekend because Karlie goes social media silent. So don’t expect anything new until next week. I always share anything I am able to on my blog … as long as it does not jeopardize anyone’s security.




                I'm sure this source will work out about as well as spade did. Good luck!



                kay group chat screenshots (yoinked from kaylortruther):



















                LAWS OF NATURE.


















                Did Karlie's contract end in August or is she still fulfilling it? Thanks

                ttb: I 100% believe it ended in August. But that does not mean they did not agree to an exist narrative that is playing out right now.






                Extremely improbable stunt resolution: Karlie annouces she's being a surrogate for one of her good friends and that she's actually filing for divorce on the 18th and that she doesn't appreciate her soon-to-be ex-'husband's friend pushing that false article, then she's shown to be at Taylor's 31st birthday and Toe isn't, Toe isn't ever seen again with Taylor pretending that Toe never existed in the first place. People come to their own conclusions that she's Taylor's surrogate and people only end up being mildly surprised if they see Taylor and Karlie walking a baby together and then entering the Tribeca house together, with Karlie never leaving to go to her own resistance.

                Anonymous said:

                Seriously, I think that my “Karlie’s going to announce she’s a surrogate for a friend, getting a divorce ASAP and condemn Scooter for pushing that article” theory is the theory that makes the most sense if she’s actually pregnant.

                News that’s a big deal doesn’t have to be friendly/nice/positive to work as Cross Promotion, just look at what Sony did with their artists Camila and Lauren, analystics shows there’s a spike of interest in them both even though Lauren said something negative.

                It’d get something he loves, attention, and Karlie’s NOT going to be kind about him once she’s publicly back on Taylor’s side, so there’s no reason for him to not use something like this to milk attention. Plus, she doesn’t necessarily have to bash Jerk in this scenario and can instead state that the ‘divorce’ is because of “irrevocable differences”. If my theory is correct, it’d be a win-win-win situation for Karlie, SB & JK











                (did . . . did that anon just suggest that a Jewish couple might kidnap a white Christian* lady's baby? Uh . . . YIIIKES)


                * since the konversion was obvs fake!










                LOGIC SWEETIE.





                Tabloids have been trying to push the "Jennifer Aniston is pregnant!!" narrative for at least 2 decades. I don't think she ever responds to the rumors, but clearly there has never been a baby. I think it's POSSIBLE that Karlie just won't comment and this will all be swept under the rug and forgotten during the chaos of November. We know it's so easy for publicists to completely change the narrative-- they could just ignore this story and the gp would forget about it in a few weeks.

                taytaysbeard answered:

                Interesting thought …



                You said that you think this might be the signaling the end for Jerklie soon, do you have any specific theories on how it could end soon?

                I really do not. I mean they got a huge media blast out of this ‘source story’. It is everywhere so people are reminded they are together. That is a common tactic before a split. They could split quietly among the election noise next week. That seems fast though right off the heels of this story. I could more likely see a denial of pregnancy issued next week during the election noise if they want to end the story quietly… after getting milage out of the ‘source’ story yesterday.

                ttb: I think the next week will tell us a lot.

















                Why would she add the lakes as the bonus track (thus making it the real closing song of the album) if they broke up? Why would she need to keep Toe if she doesn’t have a real relationship to protect? Why would Karlie keep pretending if she also doesn’t have a real relationship to protect? This whole thing doesn’t make any sense that’s why I’m not even sad about it I’m just bewildered











                I think that your theory that this shitshow might have something to do with Taylor's masters has merit. You trusted Spade completely %100, right? They did send in that one riddle on July 25th, 2019 that suggests that Karlie would do anything, even something very harmful to herself, to make Taylor "whole" again. This ridiculous stunt is... extremely harmful for Karlie in all sorts of ways, it's a lose-lose situation that doesn't make sense.

                And then of course there was the whole "The turn of the decade befalls the facade" riddle that Spade sent in, didn't we determine a few months ago that the 'turn of the decade' would technically mean 2021? Perhaps two or so months before or after January 1st, 2021 might count as the turn of the decade too?

                Yes, to all of this.

                ♠️ Without judgement or question, she bent to the ground and picked up the pieces. Blood ran from her hands as she cut herself so I could be whole. - 07/24/2019

                ♠️ The turn of the decade befalls the facade. - 11/09/2019
                If Karlie's post with the moon phases is a countdown, then I believe that a pregnancy denial, or at least something, is coming on November 2nd. Which would make sense tbh, bury the denial article in the avalanche of news so it'll slip through the cracks for some people and they may continue thinking Jerk is heterosexual.

                taytaysbeard answered:

                Interesting …that fits my thinking regarding the noise. They release the ‘rumor’ and get massive noise out of the story, and then deny it when the denial will get buried in the election news cycle. I like your thinking.

                Anonymous said:

                The full moon IS a fertility symbol, it’s supposedly when most women’s estrogen levels reach their peak, while conversely, the New Moon is when fertility coincidentally seems to be at it’s lowest for most women.

                If it is supposed to be a countdown, then a denial after 5 PM on November 2nd and something like, hmmm let’s say the Exile MV, may happen on November 5th with blatant Kaylor hints to start reseeding everyone’s interest in Kaylor might happen, since the moon phase sequence KK posted ends with a Waxing Moon?






                At this point I need a smoking gun picture of T+K to keep believing. No more winks/nods/coincidences/reaching. With each passing day and increasingly vomit-inducing Kushner-Kloss news article, Karlie's becoming ever more irredeemable in my eyes. I can't for the life me (a generally conspiracy-theory averse person) understand why I can't just call Occam's razor on this & leave Karlie to her chosen hell. Maybe bc it's such a fun conspiracy and my TTB love? Is there any one else torn like this?

                ttb: She is not sleeping with him. She forgot he existed for years. They cannot even look natural holding hands.









                Also yiiiikes.


                Right, it's the narrative which is gross here.





                MAKE KARLIE GO BROKE that'll be adequate punishment!










                And from a rival kween who flounced awhile back telling everyone the kween's sources were shit:











                WHAT TAYLOR SWIFT/BRIE LARSON FEUD HUH. ?















                But but but! After the bump vid, the kween was OVER THE WHELMS:















                Y'ALL BROKE THE KWEEN HOW DARE YOU.



                So while she's gathering herself back together, let's check in with twitter reacting to Karlie's vid . . .






























                ETA Just had to add (because this post isn't already long enough) THE FUCKING CUTEST THING EVAH:




                The fucking cutest:









                DED FROM CUTE.



                Last edited by ophy; 11-19-2020, 02:20 PM.

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                • I have so many questions but the one I can't shake: WHAT about Julianne Moore's pregnancy?
                  Itís just really honestly so tiring and emotionally draining to have to get upset over reality constantly.

                  Comment


                  • I have so many questions but the one I can't shake: WHAT about Julianne Moore's pregnancy



                    She's got two very-much-existing kids! Aged 18 and 22:







                    https://www.hellomagazine.com/celebr...tos-lookalike/
















                    Maybe that kay was talking about the baby bump she wore on set for a movie role in 2016? I literally can't think about what else they implying.











                    That was for A MOVIE, dumdums! She was already in her 50s, she wasn't pretending to be preggers for kicks and lulz.



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                    • Oh wow, that was something. The Kay roundup was every bit as disturbing and full of idiocy as I expected, and more! So let me get this straight: their best storyline is that Karlie Kloss faked becoming a Jew, in order to fake marry Josh Kushner, and is now pretending to carry his child while actually carrying Austin Swift’s, AND that is someone they want to be fans of? Well, okay.

                      I am glad TallCurlyGirl made an appearance; her stories are always wild and over-thought.

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                      • You know, I realized tonight that what I am doing here is actually just an evolution of the Ophy's Fifteen Minute Roundups I was doing back in 2001 with collecting DJer shipper crayzies from fanforum (I know, obvious statement!) . . . and that means I have been aggregating this kind of fandom nonsense for NINETEEN YEARS.

                        Which is either a testament to my devotion to y'all's entertainment or the saddest thing anyone could ever say about my life or maybe both, I dunno.



                        I could have earned at least FIVE PHDs in fandom studies by now! But NOOOOPE I GOTS NOTHING. THAT IS HILARIOUS.




                        Actual footage of me still living here in this thread in 2085, probably posting about the conspiracy theories about Josh Jackson's robot granddaughter secretly being in a relationship with Diane Kruger's robot granddaughter, even though they are both married to other robots:













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                        • I... can't with the kaylors. I give up.

                          Ophy, I don't know why you do it but thank God you continue.
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                          • Your fandom roundups have given me life for TWENTY YEARS.
                            Itís just really honestly so tiring and emotionally draining to have to get upset over reality constantly.

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                            • I wonder if the konspiracy krew recognizes how much they have in common with the election fraud and Covid hoax crowd.

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                              • Actual footage of me still living here in this thread in 2085, probably posting about the conspiracy theories about Josh Jackson's robot granddaughter secretly being in a relationship with Diane Kruger's robot granddaughter, even though they are both married to other robots:
                                I will be here for it, as long as you want to keep doing it.

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